The recent turmoil within the ruling party in Kerala is not new. The factionalism has reached gargantuan proportions and the VS-Pinarayi factions have reached the brink of seperation. Way before the 2006 elections, the two factions were fighting vehemently for supremacy. These facts are not music to the common Malayalee. But what has shaken the psyche of an average Keralaite is the attitude of the Central Polit Bureau . Though it is the first time that a member of the party's supreme body has been accused of a grave misconduct of these proportions, it is really the first time that the famed party of supposedly high moral standards has come out in open support of the state party chief Pinarayi Vijayan.
Mr. Vijayan does not deserve to be punished at this point of time. Though there are rumors of prime-facie evidences into mishandling of the SNC Lavalin deal, Mr Vijayan , like any other Indian citizen deserves the right to defend himself. A mere accusation does not transalate into conviction. But where the party lost out is its moral standing in not asking Mr. Vijayan to stand out. A decade ago , even a minor accusation would have resulted in a thorough scrutiny from the party high command. Any comrade would have stepped down from his post to uphold the morals and the values of the party. All these have changed in the last few days. The CPI(M) has downgraded itself to the same standards of just another party.
There may be many reasons behind Prakash Karat's decision to rally the part behind Mr. Vijayan. He has his own political compulsions. With Lok Sabha elections around the corner he is trying to salvage the state for his numbers. The Nandigram has severly dented the party's pro poor image in the left bastion of Bengal. Karat never dreamt of a repeat of the 2004 performance for the part in Kerala. Nevertheless, he was confident of a reasonably good performance harping on the popularity cum charisma of VS and the deft organizational ability of Mr. Vijayan.
I have a hunch that Karat has misplayed it this time around. Before the 2006 assembly elections he cleverly read the political climate in the state after the denial of party ticket to VS. He also took the extra ordinary step of going against the wishes of the Pinarayi faction by giving an assembly ticket to VS. Mr. Karat will be in for a surprise in June. There are many factors working against the CPI(M) and his decision to piggy back the Lavlin on the party itself would well be disastrous. Though there is not much anti incumbency against the government ( thanks to the unfailing popularity of the CM), the common man is generally fed up of this political drama. The people are fed up with this government with the CM and his council of ministers moving in opposite directions. Discordance within the ministry has spilled over into the administration too. Be it the much touted Smart City deal or the Vizhinjam project ,the government is not seen to be delivering.
But the biggest fall out in the minds of the people has been the loss of credentials for the party in the past few days. No one expected Mr. Karat to rally the entire party machinery to salvage a state party chief. In doing so, he has undone decades of cult status the party cultivated. Even when the party things that sounded unreasonable, it was almost impossible for even the harshest critics to condemn the CPI( M) as a corrupt party. With his last press conference, Karat has altered the dynamics and locus standing of the party politics in Kerala once and for all. CPI( M) can never again contest elections with a superior moral authority. Mr. Vijayan might emerge scot free in the coming months. But the party as such is headed for a total rout in Kerala. That is for sure.......
Sunday, February 15, 2009
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Link from " The Hindu"
This link seem to validate my earlier blog on " Real Estate and sone Economics" http://www.hindu.com/2008/10/19/stories/2008101952430500.htm
Regards
Regards
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Think Big, Act Small
Life is simple. People try to make things complex. I work for a company that has a mission goal that states “ Think Big Act Small”. This looks like a pretty decent ideology in a corporate environment. What does this statement actually mean? – The answer is intellectual exuberance is that which makes a person feel great. In short, live according to your means.
This is the age of globalization- commodities, big and small, are available in plenty. It is quite natural for a normal sane person to crave for fancy products. It is also natural for these people to use credit to purchase this product. It is also perfectly normal for these guys to flaunt these products in public. But what they do not realize is that stretching has its limits. It is very difficult for us to stretch beyond certain limits.
Take for instance, the credit crisis that has shaken the world. The bubble that was purportedly the creation of Wall Street power houses has burst and the ripple effect has been felt in every nook and corner of the globe. Why blame the big shots like AIG , Lehman Brothers and the like. A major portion of the blame has to be shared by the general public too. If you are earning a modest income of $ 50,000 and has a couple of mortgages to be paid and have kids going to school- why even dare buying a C class Merc.. Does that make sense? Any sense? Should that person even think of buying a million dollar home and have all the accessories in his/her house?
India is no different and Keralaites are unsurprisingly similar to an average American in this respect. Keralaites like to flaunt their wealth, even the very little they have. Consumerist tendencies have bolstered their egos and greed. But remember, you are not fooling the public- just yourself. The best thing in life is to enjoy the peace and calm that comes with it. There is always a satisfaction in able to sleep peacefully at night. There is always a joy at knowing that you have strived hard and truthfully to earn a decent living for my dependents. Even if you do not have a I-phone, there is a feeling that you are able to save enough pennies for your future.
The next meltdown is going to happen in India. This is not a prediction, but an economic necessity- a market correction. Kerala is going to get affected badly. I hope that at least then we learn from our mistakes and live a life that does justice to our conscience. We should all realize that material wealth has its peak while intellectual capital has sky as its limit.
This is the age of globalization- commodities, big and small, are available in plenty. It is quite natural for a normal sane person to crave for fancy products. It is also natural for these people to use credit to purchase this product. It is also perfectly normal for these guys to flaunt these products in public. But what they do not realize is that stretching has its limits. It is very difficult for us to stretch beyond certain limits.
Take for instance, the credit crisis that has shaken the world. The bubble that was purportedly the creation of Wall Street power houses has burst and the ripple effect has been felt in every nook and corner of the globe. Why blame the big shots like AIG , Lehman Brothers and the like. A major portion of the blame has to be shared by the general public too. If you are earning a modest income of $ 50,000 and has a couple of mortgages to be paid and have kids going to school- why even dare buying a C class Merc.. Does that make sense? Any sense? Should that person even think of buying a million dollar home and have all the accessories in his/her house?
India is no different and Keralaites are unsurprisingly similar to an average American in this respect. Keralaites like to flaunt their wealth, even the very little they have. Consumerist tendencies have bolstered their egos and greed. But remember, you are not fooling the public- just yourself. The best thing in life is to enjoy the peace and calm that comes with it. There is always a satisfaction in able to sleep peacefully at night. There is always a joy at knowing that you have strived hard and truthfully to earn a decent living for my dependents. Even if you do not have a I-phone, there is a feeling that you are able to save enough pennies for your future.
The next meltdown is going to happen in India. This is not a prediction, but an economic necessity- a market correction. Kerala is going to get affected badly. I hope that at least then we learn from our mistakes and live a life that does justice to our conscience. We should all realize that material wealth has its peak while intellectual capital has sky as its limit.
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Olympics and beyond- India's locus standi
At last the Olympics season has ended and it is now time for some soul searching. The Beijing Olympics had indeed been a fascinating show with the might of Chinese superiority on full display. Though India might still be years away before it can organize an event on a scale like this, we have some reasons to feel proud of. Yes-- One gold and two bronzes ( all individual medals) from a country that got its last individual medal decades ago and moreover the first INDIVIDUAL GOLD medal. While we should truly revel at this feat, we should not condone the bigger goals ahead nor the scale of work we have to do before we become a sports power. Let us look at the key issues that we have and how this could be rectified.
From time immemorial, sports was an important aspect of cultural superiority and male prowess. Historians attribute the ancient Olympics to have been initiated as early as 776 B.C founded by Heracles ( son of Zeus of Rome) ( source " "Olympic Games." Britannica.com, http://history1900s.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://www.britannica.com/bcom/eb/article/2/0%2C5716%2C115022%2B1%2B108519%2C00.html ) ). The modern version of the games started in 1896 at Athens, Greece. The Games have touched the hearts and minds of people across the continents of the rich and poor, of the capitalists and socialists, of the blue collared and white collared but not as much in the vast, populous nations of South Asia. India with a population of 1 billion + people are forced to the level of mute spectators when a small island country like Jamaica which is difficult to be spotted on the world map is walking away with 11 medals among them 3 gold souvenirs. What a pity? What a sad state to a country that has arguably the world's best talent and a vast pool to choose from.
Cricket has never been a traditional Indian sport. However, since the Prudential World Cup victory in 1983, India has made giant strides in this sport. The traditional, classical, older version of the game is a time stealer, though it could be a time killer for many. A 5-day game, often with no results may not be able to keep up with the hurry- burry lifestyles of the Gen X and Y and even the highly popular one-dayers steal your entire day. Let us admit it. Cricket, as a sport, has its limitations mostly due to the vast amount of time it consumes. I have played this game quite a lot during my child hood days ( though I should admit that I was not a good player). To state bluntly, this is not a truly 11 member game like soccer as only a few players are actively involved during any particular session. For eg: during any game, only the bowler, batsman, the wicket keeper and maybe the close in fielders have something to do while the others are left making merry or sometimes even dosing off. Some years back, there was even a report of a famous Indian cricketer who was standing idle near the bounday line for quite some time chatting with some girls from the galleries. This could perhaps happen only in this particular sport. Let us face it.. Though cricket is an immensely popular sport and is like a religion in India, it does not have a reach beyond the comity of the erstwhile Common wealth nations. Of these, soccer had long replaced cricket as the major sport of U.K years ago and I read recently that even in Australia, the popularity of cricket is slowly but steadily slipping. That leaves us with only 3 nations who are active cricket playing nations- India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. That leaves us with one question. Is winning a cricket " world cup" something we should concentrate on when only 7 nations are playing the game seriously. Should we focus all our energies on this single mission? ( and sad to say, we have even won the cricket world cup only once in 1983 and that too as an underdog).
The answer is a hell - No. Forget the media that has immensely popularised the game, forget the business power houses who have reaped in bonanza after bonanza even to budding cricketers and tapped them for their commercials. We should only remember the fact that we are ranked 50 th out of a total of 190 odd nations that took part in the Olympics. The three medals were won by athletes who were least expected to win . There is no excuse for India's laxity. We recently did celebrate our 61st birthday as a free independent nation. All the lame thoughts on India's late independence holds no water. We are ourselves to blame for this predicament. We should not blindly follow the U.S system for the development of sports. But let us atleast take a cue from it. All the Universities here - with no exception-have strong athletic/soccer teams and they regularly play against each other. The matches are intense, highly competitive and above all supremely rewarding. The winners becomes champions and true national heroes. There is always an impetus for concentrating on sports even if that means sacrificing on academics. The top talents get enough points to merit admission in even highly ranked Universities in this country. The local media glorifies just not one support nor one player. Even the University level matches are given due coverage and respect by the print and the electronic media and people actually flock to see their local heroes. Moreover, sports is an integral part of one academic Curriculum vitae.
Sachin Romesh Tendulkar is a true hero. But he is not the only hero of India. There are thousands of them, in the streets of Ludhiana, in the slums of Dharavi, in the nomadic settlements of the Thar, maybe even the far flung Indian city of Kanyakumari. What is absent is the will to tap these talent at a young age, nurture them, support them, make them believe in themselves and enthuse them to play for the country. We have to reassure them that even after they have spent their life time for the sport, they can live credibly and have a good life. What we need is a system that is impartial, shunned of regionalism and with the right people at the helm. What we also want are policies that can convince parents to believe in their children, to make them feel that engineering and medicine career streams are not the end of the world.
Some years ago, people could argue that we are a poor nation and that we do not have the luxury to do all this. Believe it or not, India is a rising tiger. Our country has corporate power houses that can tame even the North American juggernauts and believe me -these guys have the big money that the state is lacking. The government should build a public-pvt partnership ( 20/80 ratio) that would help channel the required funds into the system. Let us all work together to bring India out of this rut. Do not stop at one Abhinav Bhindra- Let us create scores of Bhindras all over India. We will have our true heroes and the corporate bosses will have their poster boys too.
From time immemorial, sports was an important aspect of cultural superiority and male prowess. Historians attribute the ancient Olympics to have been initiated as early as 776 B.C founded by Heracles ( son of Zeus of Rome) ( source " "Olympic Games." Britannica.com, http://history1900s.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://www.britannica.com/bcom/eb/article/2/0%2C5716%2C115022%2B1%2B108519%2C00.html ) ). The modern version of the games started in 1896 at Athens, Greece. The Games have touched the hearts and minds of people across the continents of the rich and poor, of the capitalists and socialists, of the blue collared and white collared but not as much in the vast, populous nations of South Asia. India with a population of 1 billion + people are forced to the level of mute spectators when a small island country like Jamaica which is difficult to be spotted on the world map is walking away with 11 medals among them 3 gold souvenirs. What a pity? What a sad state to a country that has arguably the world's best talent and a vast pool to choose from.
Cricket has never been a traditional Indian sport. However, since the Prudential World Cup victory in 1983, India has made giant strides in this sport. The traditional, classical, older version of the game is a time stealer, though it could be a time killer for many. A 5-day game, often with no results may not be able to keep up with the hurry- burry lifestyles of the Gen X and Y and even the highly popular one-dayers steal your entire day. Let us admit it. Cricket, as a sport, has its limitations mostly due to the vast amount of time it consumes. I have played this game quite a lot during my child hood days ( though I should admit that I was not a good player). To state bluntly, this is not a truly 11 member game like soccer as only a few players are actively involved during any particular session. For eg: during any game, only the bowler, batsman, the wicket keeper and maybe the close in fielders have something to do while the others are left making merry or sometimes even dosing off. Some years back, there was even a report of a famous Indian cricketer who was standing idle near the bounday line for quite some time chatting with some girls from the galleries. This could perhaps happen only in this particular sport. Let us face it.. Though cricket is an immensely popular sport and is like a religion in India, it does not have a reach beyond the comity of the erstwhile Common wealth nations. Of these, soccer had long replaced cricket as the major sport of U.K years ago and I read recently that even in Australia, the popularity of cricket is slowly but steadily slipping. That leaves us with only 3 nations who are active cricket playing nations- India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. That leaves us with one question. Is winning a cricket " world cup" something we should concentrate on when only 7 nations are playing the game seriously. Should we focus all our energies on this single mission? ( and sad to say, we have even won the cricket world cup only once in 1983 and that too as an underdog).
The answer is a hell - No. Forget the media that has immensely popularised the game, forget the business power houses who have reaped in bonanza after bonanza even to budding cricketers and tapped them for their commercials. We should only remember the fact that we are ranked 50 th out of a total of 190 odd nations that took part in the Olympics. The three medals were won by athletes who were least expected to win . There is no excuse for India's laxity. We recently did celebrate our 61st birthday as a free independent nation. All the lame thoughts on India's late independence holds no water. We are ourselves to blame for this predicament. We should not blindly follow the U.S system for the development of sports. But let us atleast take a cue from it. All the Universities here - with no exception-have strong athletic/soccer teams and they regularly play against each other. The matches are intense, highly competitive and above all supremely rewarding. The winners becomes champions and true national heroes. There is always an impetus for concentrating on sports even if that means sacrificing on academics. The top talents get enough points to merit admission in even highly ranked Universities in this country. The local media glorifies just not one support nor one player. Even the University level matches are given due coverage and respect by the print and the electronic media and people actually flock to see their local heroes. Moreover, sports is an integral part of one academic Curriculum vitae.
Sachin Romesh Tendulkar is a true hero. But he is not the only hero of India. There are thousands of them, in the streets of Ludhiana, in the slums of Dharavi, in the nomadic settlements of the Thar, maybe even the far flung Indian city of Kanyakumari. What is absent is the will to tap these talent at a young age, nurture them, support them, make them believe in themselves and enthuse them to play for the country. We have to reassure them that even after they have spent their life time for the sport, they can live credibly and have a good life. What we need is a system that is impartial, shunned of regionalism and with the right people at the helm. What we also want are policies that can convince parents to believe in their children, to make them feel that engineering and medicine career streams are not the end of the world.
Some years ago, people could argue that we are a poor nation and that we do not have the luxury to do all this. Believe it or not, India is a rising tiger. Our country has corporate power houses that can tame even the North American juggernauts and believe me -these guys have the big money that the state is lacking. The government should build a public-pvt partnership ( 20/80 ratio) that would help channel the required funds into the system. Let us all work together to bring India out of this rut. Do not stop at one Abhinav Bhindra- Let us create scores of Bhindras all over India. We will have our true heroes and the corporate bosses will have their poster boys too.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Kerala and the seventh standard ideology
I was born in the secular, sovereign ,republic of India. I had my education from a Catholic School where they never taught from religious texts. In fact, in my class, the vast majority of students were Hindus. We were taught the ideals of free speech, free religion and free ideas and most of us still posses these. We have never changed our worshipping habits nor have we enticed some one to change theirs. We have always believed in our Constitution. Then, why is that, when the developed nations are taking giant strides in the 21st century we are falling prey to issues that do not merit the kind ofmedia coverage they are getting.
The Kerala Seventh standard text book issue and the fall out of all the agitation- the tragic death of an innocent school teacher- is nothing but a shame on our psyche and our conscience. When there are so many developmental issues we could possibly focus on, why are we wasting our precious time on issues that are bound to put our clock centuries behind. Religion is a matter of personal choice- The Indian Constitution says that and we Indians tend to follow that. ( though in some cases, there are compulsions too). There are two types of people, those are religious and those are atheists. There are some atheists who believe that they can prove everything by science and they tend to mock worshippers. These people tend to occupy a higher moral and knowledge pedestal and criticize all religious activities. Some of them are hypocrites, whereby they secretly want their wives to go to temples and do pujas or prayers in their names and pose as atheists in the open. Now the second category of people are the hard core religious people who cannot tolerate dissent. They oppose anything and everything that supposedly pose threat to their believes.
I have personally not read the controversial contents of the seventh standard text book. But I am sure that lakhs of students /people would have already read this by now- just out of sheer curioisity. So now what does the opponents of the text book think now? Is Kerala going to be an agnostic state? If you analyze the annals of history, one would realize that the minds of students cannot be shaped by a certain chapter in some text book. It would definitely give a seed of thought to those young minds, but that is fair enough considering the fact that we are a secular nation. It would take some serious centuries old effort to change the beliefs, myths, customs and religious practices of a deeply spiritual country like India. So the critics of the CPI(M) needn't worry too much. There are management owned schools and colleges in Kerala that propagate , profess and quite enthusiastically encourage even students from other faiths to practice and convert to a different faith- that followed by the management. There are forced conversions all over India, often by enticement . Why is the UDF silent on these issues? Why can't they proactively take action against people who openly flout the soul of the consitution.
Only when the political parties move out of vote bank politics and focus on development oriented politics can we expect better days. The media has also not done justice to the nation by focussing on some trivial issues that generate unnecessary contribution. Let there be athiests and worshippers, let there be rightists and leftists, let people argue and counter argue- but please do not ever, ever take the life of an innocent parent of two childern in the name of petty politics. My heart goes out to Mr. James Augustine, headmaster of the Vallilapuzha primary school and his sorrowing family.
The Kerala Seventh standard text book issue and the fall out of all the agitation- the tragic death of an innocent school teacher- is nothing but a shame on our psyche and our conscience. When there are so many developmental issues we could possibly focus on, why are we wasting our precious time on issues that are bound to put our clock centuries behind. Religion is a matter of personal choice- The Indian Constitution says that and we Indians tend to follow that. ( though in some cases, there are compulsions too). There are two types of people, those are religious and those are atheists. There are some atheists who believe that they can prove everything by science and they tend to mock worshippers. These people tend to occupy a higher moral and knowledge pedestal and criticize all religious activities. Some of them are hypocrites, whereby they secretly want their wives to go to temples and do pujas or prayers in their names and pose as atheists in the open. Now the second category of people are the hard core religious people who cannot tolerate dissent. They oppose anything and everything that supposedly pose threat to their believes.
I have personally not read the controversial contents of the seventh standard text book. But I am sure that lakhs of students /people would have already read this by now- just out of sheer curioisity. So now what does the opponents of the text book think now? Is Kerala going to be an agnostic state? If you analyze the annals of history, one would realize that the minds of students cannot be shaped by a certain chapter in some text book. It would definitely give a seed of thought to those young minds, but that is fair enough considering the fact that we are a secular nation. It would take some serious centuries old effort to change the beliefs, myths, customs and religious practices of a deeply spiritual country like India. So the critics of the CPI(M) needn't worry too much. There are management owned schools and colleges in Kerala that propagate , profess and quite enthusiastically encourage even students from other faiths to practice and convert to a different faith- that followed by the management. There are forced conversions all over India, often by enticement . Why is the UDF silent on these issues? Why can't they proactively take action against people who openly flout the soul of the consitution.
Only when the political parties move out of vote bank politics and focus on development oriented politics can we expect better days. The media has also not done justice to the nation by focussing on some trivial issues that generate unnecessary contribution. Let there be athiests and worshippers, let there be rightists and leftists, let people argue and counter argue- but please do not ever, ever take the life of an innocent parent of two childern in the name of petty politics. My heart goes out to Mr. James Augustine, headmaster of the Vallilapuzha primary school and his sorrowing family.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
The price of the deal
Welcome to the Indian General Elections-2009. This whole political drama taking place at the Centre is nothing but a curtain raiser to this mega show. Two parties who were at loggerheads for the last decade or so and whose leaders were invloved in verbal spats of no mean proportions have quite unsurprisingly come together. After all politics is the art of the impossible- yup, making impossible things possible. Six months ago, Congress and the SP could not see eye to eye and the SP was vehemently fighting against the deal both in and out of the Parliament. Let us see how things may shape up as a prelude to the mega political show of 2009.
As I had mentioned in my previous blog, the 2009 General election finale may well belong to the NDA and I had also mentioned that a week in politics is more than a life time. At this stage, one thing is absolutely clear. The NDA has been resurrected, albiet by default. Now the whole game is about forging the tactical alliances to bring it back to power. It is highly unlikely that the NDA by itself will come back to power. But it could get a comfortable majority by strategically allying itself with the respective Regional parties in the so called " swing states".
The BJP has 130 members in the current Lok Sabha. Considering that to be the worst performance of the party in this decade, we can comfortably say that the BJP might well land itself with about 170-180 seats in the next Lok Sabha. This time around, the party will put up a good showing in Karnataka, thanks to the Yeduriyappa government and the populist policies they would unravel in preparatins for the general elections. Given the fact that the Yeduriyappa government is in its honey moon period, the BJP will definitely put up a good showing there. The party might even better its performance in Gujarat thanks to the Moditva factor. If the Bomaby Muncipal Corporation polls are any indication, the party along with the Shiv Sena might put up a good showing in Maharshtra. This could transalate into a 40 to 50 increase in the number of seats for the party. This is a great baseline to start with. BJP might increase its seats in a few other states too thanks to the rising inflation and fuel prices. Perhaps a tinge of anti incumbency might play its part in some Congress ruled states too. However, the biggest area of concern for the party is UP. It will be quite difficult for the party to work its way around Mayawati Raj. The core constituency of Brahmin/Thakur ( upper caste) vote has already been wooed by the shrewd Mayawati. The Yadav vote , courtesy of Kalyan Singh might also be split evenly across the BSP, SP and BJP. This means that the only way BJP can rake in good numbers in UP is through tacitly allying with BSP. A tacit alignment is well a possibility given the fact that the new Congress -SP alliance has created a kind of bipolar situation in the State. But again, all this depends on the calculation of Mayawati. After the recent spectacular showing of the BSP in the Assembly elections, she might well believe that the BSP has a fair chance of garnering 50+ seats ( out of a total of 85) in the forthcoming general elections. For its part, the BJP might be savoring an alliance with Maya's BSP.
Another swing state for the BJP is Andhra Pradesh. In his inimitable style, the TDP supremo, Chandrabhabhu Naidu is playing his cards close to his chest. Given the fact that the Congress is his main opponent in the State, it is natural for TDP to align with the BJP. But Mr. Naidu is also weary of a rising BJP in the state. By now, the possibility of a third front-( in the lines of UNPA) is a virtual impossibility. The clever politician who he is, Naidu, might well be looking again at an understanding with the BJP. This might well be a good alliance as the TDP alone cannot upstage the popularity of the YSR government in Andhra. The Y.S Rajasekhara Reddy government is not facing anti incumbency at the moment- this is a fact. But the TDP-BJP alliance can definitely give the Congress led government a run for its money.
The next swing state for the NDA is Tamil Nadu. Technically Amma's party AIADMK is not part of the NDA. But however unreliable it might be, AIADMK is gravitating itself towards the NDA. This is potentially a significant threat to Karunanidhi and Co. The current Karunanidhi-Maran family fued is likely to impact the DMK greatly. Though the Marans do not have significant political clout, they control the media empire in TN. The advantage that the Marans' owned Sun TV and Dinakaran daily could contribute to Jayalalitha is enormous. Yes- with this alliance ( plus Vaiko's MDMK), the AIADMK/MDMK/BJP alliance will reap rich rewards in the state.
The last state that I would call a swing state is Bihar. Nitish Kumar's JD( U) appears to be strong in Bihar thanks to the hugely popular CM himself. Nitish Kumar is consistently finding himself in the top 5 CM list, thanks to efficiency and the clean image that he possess. Along with that, George Fernandes' Samata party might also finding its foothold again. In the highly caste ridden Bihar politics, the USP for the BJP/JD(U)/Samata is Mr. Nitish Kumar. Lalu's RJD seems to have no chance of staging a come back this time around too.
Indian politics is becoming increasingly bi-polar- With a solid Congress led UPA and a BJP led NDA. The smaller parties have no option but to gravitate to either of these two core magnets. I have a feeling that this might well be the last time when the Left held a significant clout during government formation. Given the fact that the BJP itself might land with about 180 seats and also given the fact that these swing states are going the NDA way, it wouldn't be too difficult for the NDA to cross the magical figure of 270!!! ( Guess who might be smiling).
As I had mentioned in my previous blog, the 2009 General election finale may well belong to the NDA and I had also mentioned that a week in politics is more than a life time. At this stage, one thing is absolutely clear. The NDA has been resurrected, albiet by default. Now the whole game is about forging the tactical alliances to bring it back to power. It is highly unlikely that the NDA by itself will come back to power. But it could get a comfortable majority by strategically allying itself with the respective Regional parties in the so called " swing states".
The BJP has 130 members in the current Lok Sabha. Considering that to be the worst performance of the party in this decade, we can comfortably say that the BJP might well land itself with about 170-180 seats in the next Lok Sabha. This time around, the party will put up a good showing in Karnataka, thanks to the Yeduriyappa government and the populist policies they would unravel in preparatins for the general elections. Given the fact that the Yeduriyappa government is in its honey moon period, the BJP will definitely put up a good showing there. The party might even better its performance in Gujarat thanks to the Moditva factor. If the Bomaby Muncipal Corporation polls are any indication, the party along with the Shiv Sena might put up a good showing in Maharshtra. This could transalate into a 40 to 50 increase in the number of seats for the party. This is a great baseline to start with. BJP might increase its seats in a few other states too thanks to the rising inflation and fuel prices. Perhaps a tinge of anti incumbency might play its part in some Congress ruled states too. However, the biggest area of concern for the party is UP. It will be quite difficult for the party to work its way around Mayawati Raj. The core constituency of Brahmin/Thakur ( upper caste) vote has already been wooed by the shrewd Mayawati. The Yadav vote , courtesy of Kalyan Singh might also be split evenly across the BSP, SP and BJP. This means that the only way BJP can rake in good numbers in UP is through tacitly allying with BSP. A tacit alignment is well a possibility given the fact that the new Congress -SP alliance has created a kind of bipolar situation in the State. But again, all this depends on the calculation of Mayawati. After the recent spectacular showing of the BSP in the Assembly elections, she might well believe that the BSP has a fair chance of garnering 50+ seats ( out of a total of 85) in the forthcoming general elections. For its part, the BJP might be savoring an alliance with Maya's BSP.
Another swing state for the BJP is Andhra Pradesh. In his inimitable style, the TDP supremo, Chandrabhabhu Naidu is playing his cards close to his chest. Given the fact that the Congress is his main opponent in the State, it is natural for TDP to align with the BJP. But Mr. Naidu is also weary of a rising BJP in the state. By now, the possibility of a third front-( in the lines of UNPA) is a virtual impossibility. The clever politician who he is, Naidu, might well be looking again at an understanding with the BJP. This might well be a good alliance as the TDP alone cannot upstage the popularity of the YSR government in Andhra. The Y.S Rajasekhara Reddy government is not facing anti incumbency at the moment- this is a fact. But the TDP-BJP alliance can definitely give the Congress led government a run for its money.
The next swing state for the NDA is Tamil Nadu. Technically Amma's party AIADMK is not part of the NDA. But however unreliable it might be, AIADMK is gravitating itself towards the NDA. This is potentially a significant threat to Karunanidhi and Co. The current Karunanidhi-Maran family fued is likely to impact the DMK greatly. Though the Marans do not have significant political clout, they control the media empire in TN. The advantage that the Marans' owned Sun TV and Dinakaran daily could contribute to Jayalalitha is enormous. Yes- with this alliance ( plus Vaiko's MDMK), the AIADMK/MDMK/BJP alliance will reap rich rewards in the state.
The last state that I would call a swing state is Bihar. Nitish Kumar's JD( U) appears to be strong in Bihar thanks to the hugely popular CM himself. Nitish Kumar is consistently finding himself in the top 5 CM list, thanks to efficiency and the clean image that he possess. Along with that, George Fernandes' Samata party might also finding its foothold again. In the highly caste ridden Bihar politics, the USP for the BJP/JD(U)/Samata is Mr. Nitish Kumar. Lalu's RJD seems to have no chance of staging a come back this time around too.
Indian politics is becoming increasingly bi-polar- With a solid Congress led UPA and a BJP led NDA. The smaller parties have no option but to gravitate to either of these two core magnets. I have a feeling that this might well be the last time when the Left held a significant clout during government formation. Given the fact that the BJP itself might land with about 180 seats and also given the fact that these swing states are going the NDA way, it wouldn't be too difficult for the NDA to cross the magical figure of 270!!! ( Guess who might be smiling).
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
The menace of Ragging
We all are familiar with ragging- a kind of physical,mental and/or sexual torture being experienced by new comers to colleges across India. I am not sure whether this activity is enacted and performed in other parts of the world. Wikepedia says that ragging is popular mainly in India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan- all South Asian countries. I do not think that this heinous act is present in America or in the Western developed countries. If at all someone dares to do anything like that, he will be brought to book by the Justice system. This is not to say that the Indian Judicial system is lenient to ragging. If convicted, the person can get jail terms and also disenrollment from the university. Why is ragging so prevalent in our campuses? What is the urge behind initmidating and embarassing a fresher in the name of seniority? How can we uproot this menace once and for all. Let us take a look.
The fall of 1995. Even when I was scrambling to focus on my way ahead- I mean to study a professional course, people were asking me just one thing. How are you going to cope with ragging? Some would say- " You are lucky.. You are a day scholar.. If you are a hosteler , the first one year is goona be hell.. Or at least till the fresher's day".. "What the heck???? ", I thought. O.K , from that glorious day on Oct 4, 1995 someone else is going to decide my fate. How I should walk, how i should dress, how i should behave..Is this going to be a norm or an exception? I am not a tall guy.. I did not have the muscles.. I did not have a mustache to freighten those " thugs". But ,definitely, I had the attitude to deal with those guys. I never used to care two hoots about the so called " seniors". I can confess that I never lost a single paisa to them.. I can also claim that I stood against a just and right cause..
Just like any other campus, the world of CET is absolutely small. Even if you are the" king "in CET, nobody will know you once you reach Chavadimmukku. This is to emphasise the fact that the law of the land, the law of independent, democratic, soveriegn republic of India is the same in the capital of New Delhi as it is in the city of Trivandrum and also in the approximately three acre campus of CET. No exceptions...Absolutely no exceptions.!!! If you commit a crime, no matter what, the law will catch up with you. And yes ragging is a crime..a dangerous one at that.. The act of mentally and physically torturing a person for some insane pleasure- it may even involve lurid sexual acts..This has to be curbed at any cost.
How did ragging get so much prominence? How did it go beyond control? How can we quell this? I would like to diagnose these. Even in the 60s and 70s, ragging was active in campuses- albiet only in professional colleges. Getting admission into professional courses was the exception , not the norm in those days. So, the students who got admission were propelled into demi-god status. The parents ,of course , became the moms and dads of these demi-gods--I mean smaller gods. As a result of this, the professional college students in those days got the licence to do anything and everything.. Ragging, thus became part and parcel of the life of a fresher in college. Just imagine this- you study very hard, get good marks/ranks, go to college with high expectations and then you realize that a group of crooks are the ones who control your life..What a joke? I mean, why should I even have to meet that crook ( senior) and hear all his vocabulory? In simple language, this is nothing but a clear intrusion of one's fundemental right.
Some people say that if you don't have ragging, you cannot build friendship with seniors. Let me ask one thing.. " Will you be friends with a person whom you meet on the road, abuses you continously for hours, perhaps days and then that guy calls a meeting and declares that we will become friends". No, Never.. Then, how can you do the same with some 19, 20 year old " mavericks" who mess up with your life.. For me, even if I have lost a few " friends" because of that, I am happy..I have enough and more of friends to cater to..
Some might wonder that now he is out of college, he is saying all these things.. No.. I had always fought against this, right from the age of 18. I am proud to say that my group of friends including myself has not even verbally humiliated even a single soul.. We also went through the same age, the same kind of adrenalin, the same set of emotions but probably a different set of values. Maybe , I may not know a person since I would not have talked with him/her in the name of ragging.. But, atleast , if I meet a person from CET and shake hands , he will not have a grudge against me.
Strict punishments to be meted out to those who indulge in this third grade act. Actions ( including jail term and expulsion) should be taken against the guilty. Let there be no sympathy to these people..This is a shameless, embarassing act and the law should be equally ruthless.No one has the authority to morally or physically violate another human being. The victims should retaliate through legal means against these culprits. Last but not the least, it is good for all of us to know that.. " NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW OF THE LAND".
The fall of 1995. Even when I was scrambling to focus on my way ahead- I mean to study a professional course, people were asking me just one thing. How are you going to cope with ragging? Some would say- " You are lucky.. You are a day scholar.. If you are a hosteler , the first one year is goona be hell.. Or at least till the fresher's day".. "What the heck???? ", I thought. O.K , from that glorious day on Oct 4, 1995 someone else is going to decide my fate. How I should walk, how i should dress, how i should behave..Is this going to be a norm or an exception? I am not a tall guy.. I did not have the muscles.. I did not have a mustache to freighten those " thugs". But ,definitely, I had the attitude to deal with those guys. I never used to care two hoots about the so called " seniors". I can confess that I never lost a single paisa to them.. I can also claim that I stood against a just and right cause..
Just like any other campus, the world of CET is absolutely small. Even if you are the" king "in CET, nobody will know you once you reach Chavadimmukku. This is to emphasise the fact that the law of the land, the law of independent, democratic, soveriegn republic of India is the same in the capital of New Delhi as it is in the city of Trivandrum and also in the approximately three acre campus of CET. No exceptions...Absolutely no exceptions.!!! If you commit a crime, no matter what, the law will catch up with you. And yes ragging is a crime..a dangerous one at that.. The act of mentally and physically torturing a person for some insane pleasure- it may even involve lurid sexual acts..This has to be curbed at any cost.
How did ragging get so much prominence? How did it go beyond control? How can we quell this? I would like to diagnose these. Even in the 60s and 70s, ragging was active in campuses- albiet only in professional colleges. Getting admission into professional courses was the exception , not the norm in those days. So, the students who got admission were propelled into demi-god status. The parents ,of course , became the moms and dads of these demi-gods--I mean smaller gods. As a result of this, the professional college students in those days got the licence to do anything and everything.. Ragging, thus became part and parcel of the life of a fresher in college. Just imagine this- you study very hard, get good marks/ranks, go to college with high expectations and then you realize that a group of crooks are the ones who control your life..What a joke? I mean, why should I even have to meet that crook ( senior) and hear all his vocabulory? In simple language, this is nothing but a clear intrusion of one's fundemental right.
Some people say that if you don't have ragging, you cannot build friendship with seniors. Let me ask one thing.. " Will you be friends with a person whom you meet on the road, abuses you continously for hours, perhaps days and then that guy calls a meeting and declares that we will become friends". No, Never.. Then, how can you do the same with some 19, 20 year old " mavericks" who mess up with your life.. For me, even if I have lost a few " friends" because of that, I am happy..I have enough and more of friends to cater to..
Some might wonder that now he is out of college, he is saying all these things.. No.. I had always fought against this, right from the age of 18. I am proud to say that my group of friends including myself has not even verbally humiliated even a single soul.. We also went through the same age, the same kind of adrenalin, the same set of emotions but probably a different set of values. Maybe , I may not know a person since I would not have talked with him/her in the name of ragging.. But, atleast , if I meet a person from CET and shake hands , he will not have a grudge against me.
Strict punishments to be meted out to those who indulge in this third grade act. Actions ( including jail term and expulsion) should be taken against the guilty. Let there be no sympathy to these people..This is a shameless, embarassing act and the law should be equally ruthless.No one has the authority to morally or physically violate another human being. The victims should retaliate through legal means against these culprits. Last but not the least, it is good for all of us to know that.. " NO ONE IS ABOVE THE LAW OF THE LAND".
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