Saturday, June 27, 2009

General Elections 2009- An appraisal

It is probably too late to give my 2 cents on the outcome of the Indian General Elections. But it is never late to do a post mortem on the epic event. First of all , I humbly admit that my prediction in a previous blog ( June 6,2008 , " Some politics") that the NDA would return to power has proved wrong. While I admit that I went off the mark, I would defend that my predictions were atleast 9 months before the first votes were cast. A lot of things changed between June 2008 and April of 2009 and I was presumably wrong in a predicting the outcome of such a complex political excercise so early in the game when even the best psephologists are left scrambling for answers. I am not claiming that NDA would have returned to power if the elections were held in August of last year. I am just suggesting that the NDA lost its track running into 2009.
The absence of a core identity was the biggest handicap for the coalition. To be fair to the UPA, they won mainly due to the absence of a viable alternative at the Center. True, the UPA did some good things during their tenure. But, did they do anything substantial that India could be proud of. I would rather say that UPA was a one man army with Manmohan Singh proving to be the biggest " batsman" for them. Be it the Nuclear deal, the way he dealth with Pakistan post the Mumbai attacks, Manmohan was seen as delivering. The middle class India could relate to Manmohan as one among them and as a person who had the best interests of the nation in mind. The left parties did a grave mistake by attacking Dr. Singh on the nuclear deal issue and withdrawing support on this. ( Even the CPI leader A.B Bardhan admitted the folly the left parties made with respect to the deal. The CPI(M) could not even earn the trust of the leftist voters on this issue. When the Prime Minister repeatedy assured the nation that the nuclear partership is hugely beneficial to India , everyone except some left leaders believed him. Though the nuclear deal was not a decisive issue for this elections ( thanks to the illiteracy of a large section of the populace), I would say that this episode was the game changer. This proved to the educated Indian middle class neutral voter that Manmohan is for real and that he is a true and decisive leader.
The BJP , on the other hand, was left without any strategies. Have realized the limitations of playing the Hindutva card, the part chose the worst strategy they could ever adopt- that of attacking the personal integrity and leadership skills of Dr. Singh. That would have perhaps eliminated even the slightest chances of a BJP revival. Be it the Varun Gandhi episode or the BJP/BJD clashes in Orissa, BJP was largely seen as a party with " no difference"- that of internal squabbles and age old " ideologies". Moreover they were considered as favoring only a certain section of the population. They proved too much of a burden for a young, vibrant, secular, democratic India. Apart from Karnataka, BJP was seen as losing ground everywhere.

Now where does this end up to..? Well, I won't commit the same folly of giving exact predictions. However, I feel that the Congress will regain its past glory under Rahul Gandhi. The future of India belongs to the Congress party. As for the opposition parties, the BJP might meet the fate of the erstwhile JanataDal of the late 1980s. It might splinter into different groups and in the absence of a young, charismatic leader it could well be curtains for the party. Regional parties would still play their part, but none will have the ability to pose a threat to the Congress for a long time to come. Rahul Gandhi is the trump card for the Congress now and it may not be surprising if the party on its own reaches 300+ seats in 2014.
Again, a week in politics is more than a lifetime- goes the old adage and I have five solid years to defend my territory......

Human and Happiness Indices-Some Thoughts

(A long time since my last blog. My classes are taking away a significant amount of time but I really enjoy those. Some recent events have instigated me to comment on two indices that have confused social and financial scientists the world over). The first is the Human Development Index ( HDI) and the second is the Happiness Index ( HI). For those who are not that familiar with HDI- It is the score of a section of the population ( mostly nation based) that considers various factors like the (GDP) per capita income, the level of unemployment, literacy and educational attainment. The nations are then ranked based on their respective scores. To give some hindsight into the 2008 rankings, Iceland was the # 1 pushing Norway onto the # 2 position. The United States is at # 15, not too bad considering the relative size it has, Canada at # 3, India unsurprisingly at # 132 and Bhutan at # 131 ( http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/). These statistics are annually compiled by the UNDP and have been met with euphoria and skepticism. The basic objective , it may seem, is to classify countries as developed, developing and underdeveloped. Some people might be curious as to why Iceland is 14 ranks ahead of the United States. This could be attributed partly to the country's low size and population. The African countries , plagued by internal strifes, high levels of illiteracy and abject poverty are lower down the order.
The second index ( arguably no so popular one) is the Human Happiness Index ( HHI). Accrording to the 2006 statistics, Denmark tops the list with U.S at a reasonable 23 and India at 125 (http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/oct2006/gb20061011_072596.htm). While this is a highly subjective measure, there seems to be quite a bit of correlation between the HDI and HHI. But there is no 100% positive correlation. Why is this? Most of us work hard to maximize our wealth. Most of us believe that wealth translates directly to happiness. Statistics show that people are reasonably happy when they earn a moderate income ( I mean less than $ 150,000 a year). Increased income after that level does not result in any increase in happiness. To me, the rationale is simple. The higher you go ( be it the corporate world, the murky world of poilitics or entrepreneurship), it is increasingly difficult to balance your personal and professional priorities. We all know that this is the very key to a happy and prosperous life. The hardest part in a man's ( woman's) life is to decide and draw the limits. Peer pressure is a difficult one to handle.
Whilst we all believe that one of the purposes in life is to garner more and more wealth , we all should take a break and ponder as to what we would really like to achieve. Assuming we live upto 75 years of age and assuming that we have earned a million + dollars savings for our families and assuming that they are happy with our contribution, is this really what you strived so hard for. Maybe, maybe not. I would think that unless we create an atmosphere of distribution of wealth , we have not done anything meaningful to the society. At our deathbeds, we may not be too concerned about the extra dollars in hand ( if we have a reasonable amount of savings). Instead, we might be thinking about our purpose in life and whether we have done full justice to these. Now, distribution of wealth is not blindly giving away large sums of money . That would defeat the whole purpose. As one my teachers, the late Fr. Puilckal in my high school said, charity is to " help someone to help themselves". There are certainly people who are not in positions to help themselves. We should be more considerate to these people. If we are in a position to create job opportunities to deserving people, if we are in a position to help send the poorest of the poor children to schools, if we are in a position to play our part to uplift the society ( of which our family is a part), then do so- for that is the best thing you can do for one's country and for humanity.
In my mind, India is already a superpower. A country that is spiritually and culturally superior than most nations of the world. A country that is beset with many economic and social problems, but which has the raw talent and potential to tackle all this effectively. To me , the notion of a superpower is 50% culture + 50% materialism. Others may feel it differently. Based on that, India scores 75%. Some other countries that are materially well off get scores less than 75. While we increase our scores for materialsm , we should not forget our cultural roots and our rich heritage. I would rather prefer my country to be only 70% as developed as the first world countries but can still boast of superior cultural and moral standards.
Recently, the monarch of Bhutan ( a reformer and a a great patriot) shifted his nation's goals from Human development index to Human happiness index. Though Bhutan ranks no.131 in HDI, the tiny Himalayan kingdom has its task cut out to reach the top rankings due to its low population. But the monarch chose happiness as the criteria for success. He believes that the goal in a man's life is to achieve happiness. And believe me the people in this nation are said to lead relatively stress-free lives. Perhaps India should take a cue from its tiny neighbor and implement some of their policies.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Shashi Tharoor- The Owner's Pride

To be frank, I was quite surprised when Shashi Tharoor landed up as a Congress candidate from Trivandrum. Though I have been closely following the Congress ticket allocation drama being enacted in Delhi and Trivandrum ,Shashi Tharoor to have emerged as a front runner came as a jolt to me. 

As a Trivandrumite, I feel quite happy for my city in particular and my State in general for the good fortune of having a candidate as savvy , articulate and scholarly as Dr. Tharoor. Sadly, the only people who repent at his candidature could be the local chota congresswallas and their netas who would have preferred a person who dance to their whims and fancies.
 A person with exemplary academic qualifications, an unquestionable resume working with the world's most influential international organization ( arguably the UN), a vivacious personality, a superb communicator, a real " doer" and last but not the least, India's official candidate for the prestigious UN Secretary General post-This description is enough to put the rival candidates in the fray look like mere mortals. After his retirement from the UN as Undersecretary general, Tharoor chose the Kerala capital as his next stop. In various interviews, Dr. Tharoor laid out his importance of Trivandrum as a knowledge city and how we are grossly underutilizing its potential. He initiated various steps such as starting a " finishing school" in Technopark to sharpen the communicative skills of budding technocrats. According to him, Kerala grads are technically competent and perhaps even superior than their counterparts from other states. However, they are at an inherent disadvantage with their lowly command of the English language.
 Having been born in London, raised in various parts of India and having his ancestral lineage to Palakkad, many people including myself were surprised at his decision of choosing Trivandrum as his " karma bhoomi". But these are the very factors that make his vision for Trivandrum as genuine as it may seem. To me , his words of wisdom are not an election stunt. If he wanted to get into the Parliament and be a Minister he could have have chosen the less strenous path ( a Rajya Sabha ticket). Instead , the very fact that he has chosen the Lok Sabha as his pathway to the Parliament shows his resolve to be a true representative to the people. 
 The average voter of Trivandrum has always accepted and elected candidates based on merit irrespective of their roots. Dr. Shashi Tharoor is a priceless gift for the constituency. If a Congress led government comes into power, he could well be a minister with a plum portfolio and our constituency and the state will be huge beneficiaries. More than that, he will represent Kerala on the international stage and is sure to bring greater glory to the state. His candidature has already hogged international headlines and even the national media , hitherto who had concentrated their attention only on the big and powerful states have allocated columns for this city down south. Whatever your political affiliations , it is THE time to unite against all our differences to vote for this charismatic man and elect him as our respresentative. 
 Jai Ho..

 P.S: Tharoor is a regular columnist in dailies like the Times of India and has written several books like The Elephant, the Tiger and the Cell Phone, Bookless in Baghdad etc. Most of his works were based on India.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

CPI(M)- The loss of the cult status

The recent turmoil within the ruling party in Kerala is not new. The factionalism has reached gargantuan proportions and the VS-Pinarayi factions have reached the brink of seperation. Way before the 2006 elections, the two factions were fighting vehemently for supremacy. These facts are not music to the common Malayalee. But what has shaken the psyche of an average Keralaite is the attitude of the Central Polit Bureau . Though it is the first time that a member of the party's supreme body has been accused of a grave misconduct of these proportions, it is really the first time that the famed party of supposedly high moral standards has come out in open support of the state party chief Pinarayi Vijayan.

Mr. Vijayan does not deserve to be punished at this point of time. Though there are rumors of prime-facie evidences into mishandling of the SNC Lavalin deal, Mr Vijayan , like any other Indian citizen deserves the right to defend himself. A mere accusation does not transalate into conviction. But where the party lost out is its moral standing in not asking Mr. Vijayan to stand out. A decade ago , even a minor accusation would have resulted in a thorough scrutiny from the party high command. Any comrade would have stepped down from his post to uphold the morals and the values of the party. All these have changed in the last few days. The CPI(M) has downgraded itself to the same standards of just another party.

There may be many reasons behind Prakash Karat's decision to rally the part behind Mr. Vijayan. He has his own political compulsions. With Lok Sabha elections around the corner he is trying to salvage the state for his numbers. The Nandigram has severly dented the party's pro poor image in the left bastion of Bengal. Karat never dreamt of a repeat of the 2004 performance for the part in Kerala. Nevertheless, he was confident of a reasonably good performance harping on the popularity cum charisma of VS and the deft organizational ability of Mr. Vijayan.

I have a hunch that Karat has misplayed it this time around. Before the 2006 assembly elections he cleverly read the political climate in the state after the denial of party ticket to VS. He also took the extra ordinary step of going against the wishes of the Pinarayi faction by giving an assembly ticket to VS. Mr. Karat will be in for a surprise in June. There are many factors working against the CPI(M) and his decision to piggy back the Lavlin on the party itself would well be disastrous. Though there is not much anti incumbency against the government ( thanks to the unfailing popularity of the CM), the common man is generally fed up of this political drama. The people are fed up with this government with the CM and his council of ministers moving in opposite directions. Discordance within the ministry has spilled over into the administration too. Be it the much touted Smart City deal or the Vizhinjam project ,the government is not seen to be delivering.

But the biggest fall out in the minds of the people has been the loss of credentials for the party in the past few days. No one expected Mr. Karat to rally the entire party machinery to salvage a state party chief. In doing so, he has undone decades of cult status the party cultivated. Even when the party things that sounded unreasonable, it was almost impossible for even the harshest critics to condemn the CPI( M) as a corrupt party. With his last press conference, Karat has altered the dynamics and locus standing of the party politics in Kerala once and for all. CPI( M) can never again contest elections with a superior moral authority. Mr. Vijayan might emerge scot free in the coming months. But the party as such is headed for a total rout in Kerala. That is for sure.......

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Link from " The Hindu"

This link seem to validate my earlier blog on " Real Estate and sone Economics" http://www.hindu.com/2008/10/19/stories/2008101952430500.htm

Regards

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Think Big, Act Small

Life is simple. People try to make things complex. I work for a company that has a mission goal that states “ Think Big Act Small”. This looks like a pretty decent ideology in a corporate environment. What does this statement actually mean? – The answer is intellectual exuberance is that which makes a person feel great. In short, live according to your means.

This is the age of globalization- commodities, big and small, are available in plenty. It is quite natural for a normal sane person to crave for fancy products. It is also natural for these people to use credit to purchase this product. It is also perfectly normal for these guys to flaunt these products in public. But what they do not realize is that stretching has its limits. It is very difficult for us to stretch beyond certain limits.

Take for instance, the credit crisis that has shaken the world. The bubble that was purportedly the creation of Wall Street power houses has burst and the ripple effect has been felt in every nook and corner of the globe. Why blame the big shots like AIG , Lehman Brothers and the like. A major portion of the blame has to be shared by the general public too. If you are earning a modest income of $ 50,000 and has a couple of mortgages to be paid and have kids going to school- why even dare buying a C class Merc.. Does that make sense? Any sense? Should that person even think of buying a million dollar home and have all the accessories in his/her house?

India is no different and Keralaites are unsurprisingly similar to an average American in this respect. Keralaites like to flaunt their wealth, even the very little they have. Consumerist tendencies have bolstered their egos and greed. But remember, you are not fooling the public- just yourself. The best thing in life is to enjoy the peace and calm that comes with it. There is always a satisfaction in able to sleep peacefully at night. There is always a joy at knowing that you have strived hard and truthfully to earn a decent living for my dependents. Even if you do not have a I-phone, there is a feeling that you are able to save enough pennies for your future.

The next meltdown is going to happen in India. This is not a prediction, but an economic necessity- a market correction. Kerala is going to get affected badly. I hope that at least then we learn from our mistakes and live a life that does justice to our conscience. We should all realize that material wealth has its peak while intellectual capital has sky as its limit.

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Olympics and beyond- India's locus standi

At last the Olympics season has ended and it is now time for some soul searching. The Beijing Olympics had indeed been a fascinating show with the might of Chinese superiority on full display. Though India might still be years away before it can organize an event on a scale like this, we have some reasons to feel proud of. Yes-- One gold and two bronzes ( all individual medals) from a country that got its last individual medal decades ago and moreover the first INDIVIDUAL GOLD medal. While we should truly revel at this feat, we should not condone the bigger goals ahead nor the scale of work we have to do before we become a sports power. Let us look at the key issues that we have and how this could be rectified.

From time immemorial, sports was an important aspect of cultural superiority and male prowess. Historians attribute the ancient Olympics to have been initiated as early as 776 B.C founded by Heracles ( son of Zeus of Rome) ( source " "Olympic Games." Britannica.com, http://history1900s.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://www.britannica.com/bcom/eb/article/2/0%2C5716%2C115022%2B1%2B108519%2C00.html ) ). The modern version of the games started in 1896 at Athens, Greece. The Games have touched the hearts and minds of people across the continents of the rich and poor, of the capitalists and socialists, of the blue collared and white collared but not as much in the vast, populous nations of South Asia. India with a population of 1 billion + people are forced to the level of mute spectators when a small island country like Jamaica which is difficult to be spotted on the world map is walking away with 11 medals among them 3 gold souvenirs. What a pity? What a sad state to a country that has arguably the world's best talent and a vast pool to choose from.

Cricket has never been a traditional Indian sport. However, since the Prudential World Cup victory in 1983, India has made giant strides in this sport. The traditional, classical, older version of the game is a time stealer, though it could be a time killer for many. A 5-day game, often with no results may not be able to keep up with the hurry- burry lifestyles of the Gen X and Y and even the highly popular one-dayers steal your entire day. Let us admit it. Cricket, as a sport, has its limitations mostly due to the vast amount of time it consumes. I have played this game quite a lot during my child hood days ( though I should admit that I was not a good player). To state bluntly, this is not a truly 11 member game like soccer as only a few players are actively involved during any particular session. For eg: during any game, only the bowler, batsman, the wicket keeper and maybe the close in fielders have something to do while the others are left making merry or sometimes even dosing off. Some years back, there was even a report of a famous Indian cricketer who was standing idle near the bounday line for quite some time chatting with some girls from the galleries. This could perhaps happen only in this particular sport. Let us face it.. Though cricket is an immensely popular sport and is like a religion in India, it does not have a reach beyond the comity of the erstwhile Common wealth nations. Of these, soccer had long replaced cricket as the major sport of U.K years ago and I read recently that even in Australia, the popularity of cricket is slowly but steadily slipping. That leaves us with only 3 nations who are active cricket playing nations- India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka. That leaves us with one question. Is winning a cricket " world cup" something we should concentrate on when only 7 nations are playing the game seriously. Should we focus all our energies on this single mission? ( and sad to say, we have even won the cricket world cup only once in 1983 and that too as an underdog).

The answer is a hell - No. Forget the media that has immensely popularised the game, forget the business power houses who have reaped in bonanza after bonanza even to budding cricketers and tapped them for their commercials. We should only remember the fact that we are ranked 50 th out of a total of 190 odd nations that took part in the Olympics. The three medals were won by athletes who were least expected to win . There is no excuse for India's laxity. We recently did celebrate our 61st birthday as a free independent nation. All the lame thoughts on India's late independence holds no water. We are ourselves to blame for this predicament. We should not blindly follow the U.S system for the development of sports. But let us atleast take a cue from it. All the Universities here - with no exception-have strong athletic/soccer teams and they regularly play against each other. The matches are intense, highly competitive and above all supremely rewarding. The winners becomes champions and true national heroes. There is always an impetus for concentrating on sports even if that means sacrificing on academics. The top talents get enough points to merit admission in even highly ranked Universities in this country. The local media glorifies just not one support nor one player. Even the University level matches are given due coverage and respect by the print and the electronic media and people actually flock to see their local heroes. Moreover, sports is an integral part of one academic Curriculum vitae.

Sachin Romesh Tendulkar is a true hero. But he is not the only hero of India. There are thousands of them, in the streets of Ludhiana, in the slums of Dharavi, in the nomadic settlements of the Thar, maybe even the far flung Indian city of Kanyakumari. What is absent is the will to tap these talent at a young age, nurture them, support them, make them believe in themselves and enthuse them to play for the country. We have to reassure them that even after they have spent their life time for the sport, they can live credibly and have a good life. What we need is a system that is impartial, shunned of regionalism and with the right people at the helm. What we also want are policies that can convince parents to believe in their children, to make them feel that engineering and medicine career streams are not the end of the world.

Some years ago, people could argue that we are a poor nation and that we do not have the luxury to do all this. Believe it or not, India is a rising tiger. Our country has corporate power houses that can tame even the North American juggernauts and believe me -these guys have the big money that the state is lacking. The government should build a public-pvt partnership ( 20/80 ratio) that would help channel the required funds into the system. Let us all work together to bring India out of this rut. Do not stop at one Abhinav Bhindra- Let us create scores of Bhindras all over India. We will have our true heroes and the corporate bosses will have their poster boys too.